Understanding downward pressure on used car/truck prides

[NeptuneRanger]

How many of us jumped for joy a year ago when getting a Carvana bid ? We had no intention of selling, but liked to boast of equity in a typically depreciating asset.​

Those days were short lived. Read the link below. In a nutshell Carvana paid top dollar on cars so they could make the big bucks off pushing paper (loans). That strategy seems to have failed, perhaps a lot of defaults as a result of unpaid loans as people went upside down. Protecting future recognizable Net Operating Losses by selling blocks of loans to avoid a hostile takeover is the football equivalent of a Hail Mary.​

Just enjoy your truck for its utilitarian value not equity position.​

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https://www.autoblog.com/2023/01/17...nb7Up8A83C6meXgfcOPgPsQvV96LI&mibextid=Zxz2cZ​

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[pbethel]

Just checked nationwide Cargurus price on my van and nothing less than $7000 more than I paid in January of 2018. Bubble hasn't entirely burst.

 

[got3fords]

I get periodic emails from Carmax on my Ranger that have been showing a value close to what I paid.

 

[troutspinner]

I watch a couple dealers on YouTube and the latest is that wholesale numbers are going up and holdovers are 50% week to week (dealers and banks won’t sell as they cannot cover their costs). Repo’s are also on the rise, adding to that number.

It is only a short matter of time until those vehicles start selling lower as dealers and banks will be willing to take a small loss rather than sit on a depreciating investment. When that happens, the flood gates will open and they will drive the secondary market down quick. That’s good for consumers buying but not trading in.

 

[4Banger]

On the flip side you have articles saying the complete opposite.

Basically it says there were barley any leases since March of 2020, how long is a lease typically? ( 3 yrs. ) Leased cars are what keeps used car inventory up. So without all these leases I’m thinking the used car market will increase the value of your Ranger.

https://www.businessinsider.com/car...hicle-supply-inventory-high-prices-2023-1?amp

 

[NeptuneRanger]

On the flip side you have articles saying the complete opposite.

Basically it says there were barley any leases since March of 2020, how long is a lease typically? ( 3 yrs. ) Leased cars are what keeps used car inventory up. So without all these leases I’m thinking the used car market will increase the value of your Ranger.

https://www.businessinsider.com/car...hicle-supply-inventory-high-prices-2023-1?amp

Lots of moving parts for sure, not many Rangers were leased in the first place, so I think this more of a model specific phenomenon. A lease is simply paying for anticipated depreciation over a fixed time period with additional fees. Lease payments are going up now because the anticipated depreciation is greater. Thanks for sharing the link, it has merit and is interesting!

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